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Annual Technology Baseline and Standard Scenarios

NREL annually documents a realistic and timely set of input assumptions (e.g., technology and fuel costs) and a diverse set of potential futures ("standard scenarios") to support and inform electric sector analysis in the United States.

NREL analysts consistently apply the products of this work—described below—in their analyses throughout the following year.

  • Annual Technology Baseline (ATB) — This product includes detailed cost and performance data (both current and projected) for renewable and conventional technologies. It is presented in MS Excel and documented in a standalone and interactive website that augments the ATB data with a description and discussion of each of the technologies. The ATB website provides important context for the data and information contained in the spreadsheet.

  • Standard Scenarios Annual Report and A U.S. Electric Sector Outlook — This annual report presents an outlook of the U.S. electricity sector based on a suite of standard scenarios with their associated assumptions, including technology cost and performance assumptions from the ATB, and the resulting model outputs for each scenario. Scenario results from the Standard Scenarios are accessible via the Standard Scenarios Results Viewer.

The Annual Technology Baseline and Standard Scenarios—and the annual analysis process—are supported by the Office of Strategic Programs of the U.S. Department of Energy's Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE). And, the products leverage and synthesize the results of significant background work on individual technologies/market segments funded by specific EERE technology offices.

Prior year versions of the ATB and Standard Scenarios Report can be found here.


Laura Vimmerstedt

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