NREL's Standard Scenarios are a suite of forward-looking scenarios of the U.S. power sector that are updated annually to support and inform energy analysis.
Detailed scenario results at the state level are available via the Standard Scenario Viewer and Data Downloader.
2023 Standard Scenarios Report: A U.S. Electricity Sector Outlook, NREL Technical Report (2023)
The Standard Scenarios are simulated using the Regional Energy Deployment System and Distributed Generation Market Demand Model capacity expansion models and are updated each year to provide timely information regarding power sector evolution. The scenarios have been designed to capture a range of possible power system futures and consider a variety of factors from high vehicle electrification to major cost declines for electricity generation technologies (e.g., using cost inputs from the Annual Technology Baseline).
For select scenarios, the models are run using the PLEXOS software and the Cambium tool that assembles structured data sets of hourly cost, emissions, and operational data for modeled futures. Results are available using the Scenario Viewer and Data Downloader.
Learn about the 2023 Standard Scenarios by watching the recording of the NREL webinar from Jan. 24, 2024.
Previous Standard Scenarios
Access previous scenario versions on the Annual Technology Baseline site.