Publications
These publications—including technical reports, journal articles, conference papers, and posters—either focus on or were heavily informed by the Distributed Generation Market Demand (dGen™) Model or its predecessor, the Solar Deployment System (SolarDS) Model.
Distributed Solar and Storage Outlook: Methodology and Scenarios
As part of NREL's Storage Futures Study, dGen modeled customer decisions about whether to adopt distributed storage paired with PV under different scenarios. dGen found battery costs and high value of backup power are the biggest drivers of distributed storage deployment.
North American Renewable Integration Study: A U.S. Perspective
dGen modeled rooftop solar potential in the United States, Canada, and Mexico—generating nearly 94,000 agents for residential, commercial, and industrial sectors in U.S. counties.
Chapter 4: Customer-Adopted Rooftop Solar and Storage in the The Los Angeles 100% Renewable Energy Study
In an unprecedented NREL study, dGen modeled customer-adopted distributed energy resources for each building in the Los Angeles Department of Water and Power's service territory.
2021 Tax Preference Performance Reviews: Credit for Renewable Energy Program Payments, Washington State's Joint Legislative Audit and Review Committee Preliminary Report
Chapter 4: Customer-Adopted Rooftop Solar and Storage in The Los Angeles 100% Renewable Energy Study, NREL Technical Report
Distributed Solar Adoption in Orlando: A Household-Level Model for Distribution Resource Planning, NREL Technical Report
Distributed Solar and Storage Outlook: Methodology and Scenarios, NREL Technical Report
Focus on Energy: 2021 Rooftop Solar Potential Study Report, Cadmus Technical Report
North American Renewable Integration Study: A U.S. Perspective, NREL Technical Report
Storage Futures Study: Storage Technology Modeling Input Data Report, NREL Technical Report
2020 Standard Scenarios Report: U.S. Electricity Sector Outlook, NREL Technical Report
Analysis of the Value Proposition of High-Efficiency, Multijunction Solar Modules for Residential Rooftop Installations, IEEE 46th Photovoltaic Specialists Conference
2019 Standard Scenarios Report: A U.S. Electricity Sector Outlook, NREL Technical Report
California Time-of-Use (TOU) Transition: Effects on Distributed Wind and Solar Economic Potential, NREL Technical Report
GeoVision Analysis Supporting Task Force Report: Thermal Applications—Quantifying Technical, Economic, and Market Potential of Geothermal District Heating Systems in the United States, NREL Technical Report
GeoVision: Harnessing the Heat Beneath Our Feet, U.S. Department of Energy Report
An Overview of Distributed Energy Resource (DER) Interconnection: Current Practices and Emerging Solutions, NREL Technical Report
Quantifying Resolution Implications for Agent-based Distributed Energy Resource Customer Adoption Models, NREL Technical Report
Quantifying the Relationship Between Higher Photovoltaic Module Efficiency and the Adoption of Distributed Solar, IEEE 46th Photovoltaic Specialists Conference
Using Willingness to Pay to Forecast the Adoption of Solar Photovoltaics: A “parameterization + Calibration” Approach, Energy Policy
2018 Standard Scenarios Report: A U.S. Electricity Sector Outlook, NREL Technical Report
Assessment of the Economic Potential of Distributed Wind in Colorado, Minnesota, and New York, NREL Technical Report
Estimating the Value of Improved Distributed Photovoltaic Adoption Forecasts for Utility Resource Planning, NREL Technical Report
Market and Modeling Uncertainty in Distributed Solar Deployment Projections: A Multi-Model Comparison, NREL Technical Report
2017 Standard Scenarios Report: A U.S. Electricity Sector Outlook, NREL Technical Report
The Distributed Geothermal Market Demand Model (dGeo): Documentation, NREL Technical Report
Forecasting Residential Solar Photovoltaic Deployment in California, Technological Forecasting and Social Change
The Impact of Retail Electricity Tariff Evolution on Solar Photovoltaic Deployment, The Electricity Journal
The Impacts of Changes to Nevada's Net Metering Policy on the Financial Performance and Adoption of Disturbed Photovoltaics, NREL Technical Report
Projections of Behind-the-meter Photovoltaic Adoption in NorthWestern Energy's Montana Service Territory through 2050, NREL Presentation
Projections of Distributed Photovoltaic Adoption in Kentucky through 2040, NREL Presentation
2016 Standard Scenarios Report: A U.S. Electricity Sector Outlook, U.S. Department of Energy Report
Assessing the Future of Distributed Wind: Opportunities for Behind-the-Meter Projects, NREL Technical Report
The Distributed Generation Market Demand Model (dGen): Documentation, NREL Technical Report
Distributed PV Adoption: Sensitivity to Market Factors, NREL Presentation
Impacts of Federal Tax Credit Extensions on Renewable Deployment and Power Sector Emissions, NREL Technical Reports
Interactions of Rooftop PV Deployment with the Capacity Expansion of the Bulk Power System, Applied Energy
On the Path to SunShot: Utility Regulatory and Business Model Reforms for Addressing the Financial Impacts of Distributed Solar on Utilities, U.S. Department of Energy Report
Planning for a Distributed Disruption: Innovative Practices for Incorporating Distributed Solar into Utility Planning, NREL and Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory Report
Sensitivity of Rooftop PV Projections in the SunShot Vision Study to Market Assumptions, NREL Technical Report (2013)
WindVision: A New Era for Wind Power in the United States, U.S. Department of Energy Report (2015)
Modeling the U.S. Rooftop Photovoltaics Market, NREL Conference Paper (2010)
Renewable Electricity Futures Study, NREL Technical Report (2012)
The Solar Deployment System (SolarDS) Model: Documentation and Sample Results, NREL Technical Report (2009)
SunShot Vision Study. U.S. Department of Energy Report (2012)
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