ADOPT: Automotive Deployment Options Projection Tool

ADOPT logo

NREL’s Automotive Deployment Options Projection Tool (ADOPT) is a vehicle consumer choice and stock model.

ADOPT estimates the impact of vehicle technology improvements on future U.S. vehicle sales, energy use, and emissions. It provides consumer choice estimates based on questions such as:

  • How much impact do lower battery prices have on electric vehicle sales?
  • How quickly would the market adopt a co-optimized engine/fuel combination that achieves a 10% efficiency improvement?
  • How do fuel prices impact the electric vehicle/plug-in hybrid electric vehicle sales mix?
  • How does vehicle lightweighting impact powertrain sales?

Approach

Starting with the majority of existing vehicle makes, models, and trims to fully represent the market, ADOPT applies numerous inputs—technology improvements, fuel prices, and vehicle purchase incentives—over time. ADOPT then estimates sales based on the variable weighted value of key attributes, including vehicle price, fuel cost per mile, acceleration, size, and range. ADOPT also considers consumer income level as well as regulations and standards that influence sales and average fuel economy.

ADOPT incorporates the Future Automotive Systems Technology Simulator to apply specified technology improvements to vehicles over time, and to create new model options by combining high-selling powertrains and high-selling vehicle platforms.

NREL has extensively validated the tool and its consumer preference trade-offs to ensure confidence in the results.

Screenshot of the ADOPT user interface, with two simulation scenario options (low tech and high tech), various settings (year, CAFE/GHG regulations, new powertrain diffusion, fleet evolution, FASTSim approximation, and regulation settings), and graphical results pertaining to annual sales by powertrain type (hydrogen fuel cell, CNG, E85, PHEV, EV, conventional diesel, hybrid gasoline, and conventional gasoline) from a historical perspective and a simulated future perspective.

ADOPT features an easy-to-use interface.

Download ADOPT

The Automotive Deployment Options Projection Tool is available for download as an executable file and requires the use of Microsoft Windows and Excel.

Download

Latest version ADOPT 2019C first available online in January 2020

Future Vehicle Attribute Scenarios

These Excel spreadsheets provide information about aggregated light-duty vehicle attributes derived from ADOPT simulations, including detailed assumptions for two scenarios, interactive plots showing vehicle attributes over time for each scenario, and the underlying data. Data are also available as flat CSV files.

The Transportation Technology Total Cost of Ownership webpage features corresponding future medium- and heavy-duty vehicle attribute scenarios optimized for total cost of ownership.

Feedback

Although NREL does not provide technical support for ADOPT, we welcome your feedback on the tool. Please email your feedback or report any problems to adopt@nrel.gov.

Publications

View publications that provide examples of how ADOPT can be used to estimate technology improvement impacts on sales, energy use, and emissions.

How To Cite ADOPT

If you use ADOPT for work described in a publication, please notify us and include this citation in your publication:

Brooker, A., Gonder, J., Lopp, S., and Ward, J., "ADOPT: A Historically Validated Light Duty Vehicle Consumer Choice Model," SAE Technical Paper 2015-01-0974, 2015, doi:10.4271/2015-01-0974.

More Information

For more information about ADOPT, refer to this technical paper: ADOPT: A Historically Validated Light-Duty Vehicle Consumer Choice Model.

Share