ADOPT: Automotive Deployment Options Projection Tool

Developed by NREL, the Automotive Deployment Options Projection Tool (ADOPT) is a light-duty vehicle consumer choice and stock model. ADOPT estimates vehicle technology improvement impacts on future U.S. light-duty vehicle sales, energy use, and emissions.

ADOPT provides consumer choice estimates based on questions like:

• How much impact do lower battery prices have on electric vehicle sales?
• How quickly would the market adopt a co-optimized engine/fuel combination that achieves a 10% efficiency improvement?
• How do fuel prices impact the electric vehicle/plug-in hybrid electric vehicle sales mix?
• How does vehicle lightweighting impact powertrain sales?

Approach

Starting with the majority of existing vehicle makes, models, and trims to fully represent the market, ADOPT applies numerous inputs—technology improvements, fuel prices, and vehicle purchase incentives—over time. ADOPT then estimates sales based on the variable weighted value of key attributes, including vehicle price, fuel cost per mile, acceleration, size, and range. ADOPT also considers consumer income level as well as regulations and standards that influence sales and average fuel economy.

ADOPT incorporates the FASTSim vehicle powertrain model to apply specified technology improvements to vehicles over time, and to create new model options by combining high-selling powertrains and high-selling vehicle platforms.

NREL has extensively validated the tool and its consumer preference trade-offs to ensure confidence in the results.

ADOPT features an easy-to-use interface.

Download ADOPT

Feedback

While NREL does not provide technical support for ADOPT, we welcome your feedback on the tool. Please email your feedback or report any problems to adopt@nrel.gov.

Publications

These publications provide examples of how ADOPT has been used to estimate technology improvement impacts on sales, energy use, and emissions.

• Biomass Market Dynamics Supporting the Large‐Scale Deployment of High‐Octane Fuel Production in the United States
  Authors: P. Lamers, R. Nguyen, D. Hartley, J. Hansen, and E. Searcy
  Journal: GCB Bioenergy (March 2018)

• Electrification Futures Study: End-Use Electric Technology Cost and Performance Projections through 2050
  Authors: P. Jadun, C. McMillan, D. Steinberg, M. Muratori, L. Vimmerstedt, and T. Mai
  Report: National Renewable Energy Laboratory (December 2017)

• Comparison of Vehicle Choice Models
  Authors: T. Stephens, R. Levinson, A. Brooker, C. Liu, Z. Lin, A. Birky, and E. Kontou
  Report: Argonne National Laboratory (October 2017)

• Well-to-Wheels Greenhouse Gas Emission Analysis of High-Octane Fuels with Ethanol Blending: Phase II Analysis with Refinery Investment Options
  Authors: J. Han, M. Wang, A. Elgowainy, and V. DiVita
  Report: Argonne National Laboratory (August 2016)

• Summary of High-Octane Mid-Level Ethanol Blends Study
  Authors: T. Theiss, T. Alleman, A. Brooker, A. Elgowainy, G. Fioroni, J. Han, S. Huff, C. Johnson, M. Kass, P. Leiby, R. Martinez, R. McCormick, K. Moriarty, E. Newes, G. Oladosu, J. Szybist, J. Thomas, M. Wang, and B. West
  Report: Oak Ridge National Laboratory (July 2016)

• High-Octane Mid-Level Ethanol Blend Market Assessment
  Authors: C. Johnson, E. Newes, A. Brooker, R. McCormick, S. Peterson, P. Leiby, R. Martinez, G. Oladosu, and M. Brown
  Report: National Renewable Energy Laboratory (December 2015)

How to Cite ADOPT

If you use ADOPT for work described in a publication, please notify us and include this citation in your publication:

Brooker, A., Gonder, J., Lopp, S., and Ward, J., "ADOPT: A Historically Validated Light Duty Vehicle Consumer Choice Model," SAE Technical Paper 2015-01-0974, 2015, doi:10.4271/2015-01-0974.

More Information

For more information about ADOPT, subscribe for periodic email updates or refer to this technical paper—ADOPT: A Historically Validated Light-Duty Vehicle Consumer Choice Model.