SERA: Scenario Evaluation and Regionalization Analysis Model

SERA icon

The Scenario Evaluation and Regionalization Analysis (SERA) model provides insights that can guide infrastructure development and transportation investment decisions and accelerate the adoption of electric vehicles.

The SERA model can evaluate both the supply and demand sides of transportation systems. The SERA model has been used to:

  • Quantify alternative vehicle adoption
  • Estimate fleet-wide travel, fuel, and energy consumption
  • Identify the optimal number, size, and locations of hydrogen fueling stations
  • Design the cost-optimal hydrogen supply-chain infrastructure needed to support a growing fuel cell electric vehicle fleet.

Developed at NREL, SERA is an extensive systems analysis model that considers both market factors—such as supply and demand―and technology factors—such as availability, cost, and performance—to design transportation infrastructure from a city-scale up to a national road map.

SERA can be readily configured to assess investment and market growth dynamics in a state or region and complements other NREL and U.S. Department of Energy infrastructure analysis tools.


Current SERA model capabilities include:

  • Model alternative powertrain adoption, vehicle-miles traveled, and energy consumption
  • Estimate early-adopter locations for alternative powertrain vehicles
  • Optimize hydrogen refueling station build-out over both time and location
  • Cost-optimize hydrogen supply-chain infrastructure (production, transmission, and distribution)
  • Estimate vehicle and infrastructure costs, cash flows, financing, and incentives
  • Readily add new technologies to an analysis.

Selected Publications

These publications describe the SERA modeling framework and provide examples of how SERA has been used to explore hydrogen infrastructure deployment scenarios.

Scenario Evaluation and Regionalization Analysis (SERA) Model: Demand Side and Refueling Infrastructure Buildout, NREL Technical Report (2019)

Modeling Hydrogen Refueling Infrastructure to Support Passenger Vehicles, Energies (2018)

National Hydrogen Scenarios: How Many Stations, Where, and When?, Report Prepared by NREL for the H2USA Locations Roadmap Working Group (2017)

SERA Scenarios of Early Market Fuel Cell Electric Vehicle Introductions: Modeling Framework, Regional Markets, and Station Clustering, NREL Technical Report (2013)


SERA is currently a close-sourced model. If you are interested in learning more about the model or its capabilities, please contact Mark Chung, 303-384-6404.