SERA: Scenario Evaluation and Regionalization Analysis Model

The Scenario Evaluation and Regionalization Analysis (SERA) model provides insights that can guide infrastructure development and investment decisions for hydrogen and other commodities at scale.

The SERA model can evaluate both the supply and demand sides of a commodity market. The SERA model has been used specifically for hydrogen and hydrogen derivatives to:

• Design the cost-optimal hydrogen supply-chain infrastructure needed to support a growing hydrogen market.
  
• Evaluate the U.S. position in international trade of hydrogen and hydrogen derivatives by 2035
  
• Evaluate how delivered and/or dispensed costs of hydrogen under various long-term infrastructure buildout scenarios evolve over time
• Determine the number, capacity, and location of different types of hydrogen production units (e.g., steam methane reform and carbon capture and storage, electrolysis, methane pyrolysis, coal or biomass gasification) needed to satisfy demand in a cost- and spatially optimized manner.
  

Developed at NLR, SERA is an extensive systems analysis model that considers both market factors (such as supply and demand) and technology factors (such as availability, cost, and performance) to design supply chain infrastructure for hydrogen or other emerging commodities from a city scale up to a national or international scale for transportation and nontransportation applications.

SERA inputs are highly flexible and can be custom-configured to address a variety of user-defined scenarios; assess regional, national, or international  investment and market growth dynamics; and complement other NLR and U.S. Department of Energy infrastructure analysis tools.

Read how the Model Fast-Tracks Hydrogen Supply Chain Infrastructure Deployment.

Capabilities

SERA model capabilities include:

• Cost-optimizing hydrogen supply-chain infrastructure (production, transmission, storage, and distribution) buildout while meeting user-defined demand or demand curve requirements
  
• Estimating supply chain levelized costs and cash flows under various financing and incentive schemes
  
• Modeling supply chain buildout for other growing commodities—including carbon dioxide, ammonia, sustainable aviation fuel, and synthetic natural gas—using  infrastructure cost information
  
• Readily adding new technologies to an analysis.