SERA: Scenario Evaluation and Regionalization Analysis Model

The Scenario Evaluation and Regionalization Analysis (SERA) model provides insights that can guide infrastructure development and transportation investment decisions, whether for fuel cell electric vehicles or non-transportation applications.

The SERA model can evaluate both the supply and demand sides of the hydrogen market. The SERA model has been used to:

• Design the cost-optimal hydrogen supply-chain infrastructure needed to support a growing hydrogen market
• Quantify alternative vehicle adoption
• Estimate fleet-wide travel, fuel, and energy consumption
• Identify the optimal number, size, and locations of hydrogen fueling stations
• Quantify the number and capacity of different types of hydrogen production units (e.g. steam methane reform and carbon capture and storage, electrolysis, methane pyrolysis, coal or biomass gasification, etc.) needed to satisfy demand in a cost- and spatially-optimized manner.

Developed at NLR, SERA is an extensive systems analysis model that considers both market factors—such as supply and demand―and technology factors—such as availability, cost, and performance—to design hydrogen supply chain infrastructure from a city-scale up to a national road map in support of both transportation and non-transportation applications.

SERA inputs are highly flexible and can be custom-configured to address a variety of user-defined scenarios, assess region-specific or nation-wide investment and market growth dynamics, and  complement other NLR and U.S. Department of Energy infrastructure analysis tools.

Capabilities

Current SERA model capabilities include:

• Modeling alternative powertrain adoption, vehicle-miles traveled, and energy consumption
• Estimating early-adopter locations for alternative powertrain vehicles
• Optimizing hydrogen refueling station build-out over both time and location
• Cost-optimizing hydrogen supply-chain infrastructure (production, transmission, and distribution)
• Estimating vehicle and infrastructure costs, cash flows, financing, and incentives
• Readily adding new technologies to an analysis.