Uncertainty-Based Dynamic Reserves and Flexibility Estimation
As solar and wind power become more common, power system operators and flexible resources must manage challenging imbalances induced by uncertainty. NREL researchers are studying solutions to mitigate or manage these imbalances.
Capabilities
- Data analytics for estimating the flexibility distributed energy resources can provide
- Simulations using the Flexible Energy Scheduling Tool for Integrating Variable Generation (FESTIV)—a multiple-timescale simulation tool that includes security-constrained unit commitment, security-constrained economic dispatch, and automatic generation control—for estimating the value of more accurate reserve requirements and understanding the impact of modifications to power system operations and markets on the economic and reliability performance of the power systems
- Decision analysis to assess different participation models in electricity markets for hybrid power plants and estimate the value of uncertainty mitigation and flexibility a hybrid power plant can achieve.
Projects
In this 3-year project, NREL researchers are studying how probabilistic solar irradiation
forecast can inform the sizing of flexible ramping product requirements. The project
advances the state of the art by using probabilistic solar forecasts to estimate flexible
ramping product requirements. NREL is conducting simulations using FESTIV to estimate
how system costs and reliability change when novel methods for estimating flexible
ramping product requirement replace status-quo methods that rely on historical information
overlooking the weather conditions.
In this 3-year project, an NREL-led project team is developing an operating paradigm
that leverages flexibility from distributed and bulk resources to cost-effectively
manage delivery risk of intermittent resources such as solar and wind. The project
team is developing distributed energy resource flexibility scores that will recognize
heterogeneity of distributed energy resources and inform the bidding and scheduling
strategies of aggregators and utilities. NREL is also designing a flexibility auction
that allows participants with uncertain output to hedge by buying physical flexibility
from bulk supply resources and portfolios of distributed energy resources. The project
aims to increase market surplus, improve power system reliability, and provide effective
price signals.
Publications
Flexibility Auctions: A Framework for Managing Imbalance Risk, Federal Energy Regulatory Commission Technical Conference on Increasing Real-Time and Day-Ahead Market Efficiency Through Improved Software (2021)
What Is the Value of Alternative Methods for Estimating Ramping Needs?, IEEE Green Technologies Conference (2020)
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