NREL's dGen Model Helps Orlando Plan for Solar Adoption (Text Version)

This is the text version of a video about NREL's Distributed Generation Market Demand (dGen™) Model customization that individually simulates solar adoption potential for every owner-occupied building in a service territory through the year 2050.

Shot of aerial view of an Orlando neighborhood.

Rooftop solar PV adoption in the Sunshine State has been slow …

Shot of close-up solar panel.

... compared to other sunny states like California.

Shot of Orlando, Florida, cityscape; Text on screen reads “100% in 2050.”

Considering Orlando is targeting 100% clean energy by 2050 …

Shot of rooftops in Orlando.

… could there be greater adoption in the future?

Shot of two energy analysts looking at a computer screen, followed by a researcher looking a map, and an aerial view of the National Renewable Energy Laboratory in Golden, Colorado.

To find out, the Orlando Utilities Commission teamed up with dGen™ modelers at the National Renewable Energy Laboratory.

Shot of dGen logo; text onscreen reads “dGen Distributed Generation Market Demand Model.”

dGen, or the Distributed Generation Market Demand Model, is a free, open-source tool …

Shot of a computer screen scrolling through the dGen model.

… that uses a unique bottom-up, agent-based modeling approach to simulate customer decisions about adopting and using distributed energy resources.

Shot of downtown buildings in Orlando.

NREL analysts first prepared datasets for buildings within the service area including …

Shot of a hand flipping a light-switch.

… electricity consumption …

Shot of construction workers walking on a roof and installing a solar panel.

… property assessment, and roof measurements to determine if solar makes sense on a given building.

Shot of three neighbors standing outside of a house.

Next, they assigned an “agent,” or potential solar adopter to each building. 

Shot zooming in on Orlando cityscape.

For the most accurate projection, dGen analysts individually modeled …

Energy analysts gather around a table looking at adoption projections. Text on screen reads “2050.”

… every building in future scenarios through 2050.

Shots of Orlando homes with solar panels.

Agents decided whether to adopt solar under different costs of solar and tariff structures.

Shot of an energy analyst at a computer showing modeling projections.

dGen analysts then intersected the adoption forecast data with the distribution system.

Shot of a simulation of adoption potential by distribution feeder through 2050 with changing colors for increasing adoption.

Simulations showed the Sunshine State deserves its name.

Text onscreen reads “248 MW by 2030.”

The dGen model projects the potential for 248 MW of solar to be adopted by 2030 in owner-occupied buildings in Orlando.

Shot of a construction worker installing solar panels on a roof. Text onscreen reads, “248 MW by 2030” and “370 MW by 2050.”

This increases to 370 MW by 2050.

Aerial shot of a distribution feeder. Text onscreen reads “25% solar adoption,” with arrow connected to text that reads “5% distribution feeders.”

25% of the solar adoption through 2050 is projected to be concentrated on just 5% of distribution feeders …

Shot of close-up solar panel. Text onscreen reads “2035” with exponential bar chart icon.

… with the biggest growth anticipated by 2035.

Shot of engineers at a solar panel installation site.

Now Orlando energy planners have a much better sense of when and where …

Shot of a solar farm with a cityscape in the background.

… more renewables could be adopted …

Shot of energy planners standing by a transmission tower.

… to inform their power-system planning …

Shot of waterfront in Orlando.

… and reach the city's ambitious clean-energy goals.

Shot of panning view of Orlando.

Are you ready to elevate your distributed generation studies?

Video ends with shot of dGen logo and text onscreen reads: dGen nrel.gov/analysis/dgen/ email: dgen@nrel.gov.

Contact the dGen team today.