The Lithuania 100% Renewable Energy Study

The Lithuania 100% Renewable Energy Study is a collaborative research and development agreement between the Lithuanian Energy Agency and the U.S. Department of Energy’s National Renewable Energy Laboratory.

Group of participants from the Republic of Lithuania stand outside building for photo

Dainius Kreivys (front, third from left), minister of energy of the Republic of Lithuania, and NREL Director Martin Keller (front, second from left) stand with participants from the Republic of Lithuania and NREL following an agreement signing on NREL's South Table Mountain campus. Photo by Werner Slocum, NREL

Since gaining independence from the Soviet Union in 1990, Lithuania has made steady progress toward economic growth and energy independence. The country’s current rate of imported electricity is 55%, with electricity demand at 2.1 GW peak and 12.6 TWh annually. Lithuania closed the Ignalina Nuclear Power Plant in 2009 and currently operates synchronously with the Russia-Belarus power system, though a de-synch is planned in early 2025.

To achieve a climate-neutral energy sector, Lithuania will have to more than triple the amount of renewable energy generated. The Lithuania 100% Renewable Energy Study, which was announced by NREL Director Martin Keller and former Lithuanian Energy Agency Director Virgilijus Poderys on Oct. 31, 2022, will evaluate a range of future scenarios and equip decision makers in Lithuania with answers to many critical energy transition questions. Leveraging this study model to transition its energy sector will make Lithuania one of the first countries in the world to achieve 100% renewable energy.

Project Goals

The study is designed around four technical focus areas:

  • 100% pathways for Lithuania’s power system
  • Distribution grid planning and analysis
  • Opportunities for hydrogen production and utilization
  • Greenhouse gas emissions, air quality, and health benefits.

Results from this study will help the Lithuanian Energy Agency understand and plan for issues related to feasibility, reliability, public health, and equitable local economic development. It will also empower Lithuania to harness domestic energy resources and accelerate its journey to energy independence.

Learn more about the launch of the Lithuania 100% Renewable Energy Study.

Project Approach

This agreement spans 4 years, from 2023 to 2027, but most of the study will be completed and published by the end of the second year. The remaining 2 years will leverage direct support from technical experts at NREL to drive capacity building, training, and implementation. The following scoping questions will be kept in mind throughout the study:

  • Is 100% renewable energy in electricity technically achievable by 2045 (or sooner)?
  • How does the system perform during prolonged periods of low wind across the region?
  • What needs to change in the electricity distribution network to enable 100%?
  • What are the opportunities for domestic production, transportation, utilization, and storage of hydrogen and other renewable energy carriers?
  • How does moving toward 100% renewable energy impact local air quality and health outcomes?

Activities

The study team will assess the technical ability of Lithuania’s grid to achieve 100% renewable electricity while maintaining reliable system operations. Grid modeling will inform Lithuania’s decision makers about the need for firm capacity resources, optimal operations of planned battery storage resources, and the impact of heating and transport electrification on grid operations, among other topics. The study’s interim results, released in May 2024, suggest Lithuania can feasibly meet its 2030 electricity demand through renewables, thanks to abundant renewable energy potential, flexible generation capacity, and robust interconnections with neighboring E.U. countries
High-quality wind and solar data is the foundation of energy systems analysis and will be a core input for the study’s modeling activities. NREL’s geospatial data science team will develop state-of-the-art wind and solar data at high temporal and geographic resolutions to inform the locations and performance of future renewable energy projects across Lithuania.
Challenges and opportunities to improve distribution system planning and operation with high adoption of distributed energy resources and electrification of heat and transport sectors will be identified. The task team will perform analysis of distribution networks from urban, suburban, and rural service territories that will help identify the breadth of challenges faced on diverse networks throughout Lithuania.
A techno-economic analysis of opportunities for clean hydrogen and other renewable gasses in Lithuania will be conducted, with a focus on identifying cost-effective options to decarbonize local industries such as oil refining and ammonia production. The task team will also assess options for production and transportation of clean hydrogen in Lithuania with a view toward integrating with the planned European Hydrogen Backbone.
The study will characterize the benefits of Lithuania’s 100% renewable energy transition in terms of reduced greenhouse gas emissions, improved air quality, and related public health effects.

Publications

The Lithuania 100% Renewable Energy Study — Interim Results: Electricity System Scenarios for 2030 , NREL Presentation (2024)

Contact

Ilya Chernyakhovskiy

Senior Model Engineer

Ilya.Chernyakhovskiy@nrel.gov
303-275-4306

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