The Stochastic Energy Deployment System (SEDS) features modules covering a variety of energy sectors and technologies.
Note: The technologies represented in each module are divided into two categories: those whose cost and performance have been approximated through the U.S. Department of Energy's program of eliciting probabilistic assumptions from technology experts, and those that come from other sources.
Covers both commercial and residential building technologies and forces them to compete against each other for market share, exploring how the introduction of a new technology might lead to its deployment.
Allows for 16 different technologies, including conventional, advanced hybrid, fuel cell and electric-powered vehicles, which enables extensive analysis regarding policies.
Keeps track of the vehicle vintage, retiring medium- and heavy-duty trucks based on age and/or efficiency metrics, which allows newer, more efficient models to enter the vehicle pool.
Uses quasi-technologies for industry-specific processes stratified into three bands of efficiencies and four fuel options, which then compete based on levelized technology costs and energy intensities.
Understands that the electric sector chooses technologies based on a least-cost option (levelized cost of energy) in each load slice where the technology is available.
Sees the price of biomass and costs of conversion, taking into account ethanol yield to arrive at a price for ethanol for a given ethanol demand from the light-duty vehicles sector.
Feeds available feedstock supply through a supply curve, generating the average cost of needed biomass to calculate a price for any given demand.
Uses supply curves from Annual Energy Outlook data and demand from other sectors to arrive at a coal price to which a general price uncertainty factor is applied.
Calculates supply with specified biomass and natural gas costs from those respective sectors given demand from the light-duty vehicles sector.
Calculates what the different petroleum product requirements will be and demands an associated amount of crude oil.
Obtains its inputs for gross domestic product, population, manufacturing growth rate, disposable personal income, and interest rate from the Annual Energy Outlook's high, low and reference cases.
Bases competition among supply curves from the different sources of production, allowing for the least-cost natural gas sources to provide the amount demanded from the other sectors.
Incorporates stochasticity into the stock of the resource, so when the three Annual Energy Outlook oil price scenarios are inputted, interpolated trends between them are randomly chosen for each iteration.