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Forecasting

NREL researchers use solar and wind resource assessment and forecasting to develop models that better characterize the potential benefits and impacts of variable generation on electric power system operations.

Electric power system operators can reduce the uncertainty of solar and wind generation output by using forecasts that incorporate meteorological data to predict production. Such systems yield both hour-ahead and day-ahead forecasts to support real-time operations. They also inform the scheduling and market decisions necessary for day-ahead planning.

Forecasting allows operators to anticipate solar and wind generation levels and adjust other generation units accordingly. Improved short-term wind production forecasts let operators make better day-ahead market operation and unit-commitment decisions, help real-time operations in the hour ahead, and warn operators about severe weather events. Advanced forecasting systems can also help warn system operators if extreme weather events are likely so the operator can take measures to protect generation equipment.

The seamless integration of variable generation output forecasting—into both power market and utility control room operations—is critical to accommodating large penetrations of renewable energy in electric power systems.

For More Information

For more information about variable generation forecasting, see the following resources. Additional publications can be found in the NREL Publications Database.

Contact

Kirsten Orwig
303-384-7135