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Technology and Program Market Data - Solar Energy Technologies
This Web page includes a summary of market data for the Solar Energy Technologies Program. Data includes market penetration; industry trends; cost, price, and performance trends; policy and market drivers; as well as future outlook.
The National Renewable Energy Laboratory led an effort initiated by the Strategic Planning and Analysis group of the Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) to produce a full report, which this page summarizes. The following documents are available as Adobe Acrobat PDFs. Download Adobe Reader.
2008 Solar Technologies Market Report
The 2008 Solar Technologies Market Report (PDF 4.3 MB) focuses on the U.S. solar electricity market, including photovoltaic (PV) and concentrating solar power (CSP) technologies. The report is organized into five chapters. Chapter 1 provides an overview of global and U.S. installation trends. Chapter 2 presents production and shipment data, material and supply chain issues, and solar industry employment trends. Chapter 3 presents cost, price, and performance trends. Chapter 4 discusses policy and market drivers such as recently passed federal legislation, state and local policies, and developments in project financing. Chapter 5 provides data on private investment trends and near-term market forecasts. Highlights include:
The global PV industry has seen impressive growth rates in cell/module production during the past decade, with a 10-year compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 46% and a 5-year CAGR of 56% through 2008. Global production reached 6.9 GW in 2008, led primarily by manufacturers in Europe, China, and Japan. China has realized very high growth rates in recent years and was tied with Europe at 27% market share in 2008. The United States ranked fifth in 2008 at 6% market share or 0.41 GW of production. Thin-film PV technologies have grown faster than crystalline silicon over the past 5 years, with a 10-year CAGR of 47% and a 5-year CAGR of 87% for thin-film shipments through 2008. Global thin-film market share increased to 14% in 2008. The United States was the global leader in thin-film production in 2008, with its top two manufacturers both thin-film producers, First Solar (CdTe) and United Solar Ovonics or Uni-Solar (a-Si). First Solar was the second-largest global PV producer in 2008. Global installed PV capacity increased by 6.0 GW in 2008, a 152% increase over 2.4 GW installed in 2007. The 2008 addition brought global cumulative installed PV capacity to 13.9 GW. Leaders in 2008 capacity additions were Spain at 2.7 GW, Germany at 1.5 GW, and the United States and Italy both at 0.34 GW. Germany maintained its lead in cumulative installed capacity in 2008 with 5.3 GW, followed by Spain at 3.4 GW, Japan at 2.1 GW, and the United States at 1.1 GW. The grid-connected market accounted for 97% of 2008 capacity additions and 94% of cumulative installed capacity in 2008. The United States installed 0.34 GW of PV capacity in 2008, a 63% increase over 0.21 GW in 2007. The 2008 addition brought U.S. cumulative installed PV capacity to 1.1 GW. California continued to dominate the market with nearly 180 MW installed in 2008, bringing cumulative installations to 530 MW or 67% of the U.S. market. New Jersey followed with 23 MW installed in 2008, bringing cumulative capacity to 70 MW or 9% of the U.S. market. Global average PV module prices dropped 23% from $4.75/W in 1998 to $3.65/W in 2008. Module prices rose slightly from 2002 to 2007 caused by polysilicon supply constraints, but resumed their downward trend by decreasing from $4.07/W in 2007 to $3.65/W in 2008. Capacity-weighted, average PV installation costs in the United States decreased 31% from $10.8/W in 1998 to $7.5/W in 2008. The cost decline of $0.3/W from 2007 to 2008 corresponds to a $0.42/W decline in module prices over the same period, whereas installation cost reductions from 1998–2005 were largely attributable to non-module costs (prices are given in real 2008$). Federal legislation, including the Emergency Economic Stabilization Act of 2008 (EESA, October 2008) and the American Recovery and Reinvestment Act (ARRA, February 2009), is providing unprecedented levels of support for the U.S. solar industry. The EESA and ARRA provide extensions and enhancements to the federal investment tax credits (ITCs), including allowing utilities to claim the ITC, a new 30% manufacturing ITC for solar and other clean energy technologies, and an option that allows grants in lieu of tax credits for taxpaying corporate entities. The $787 billion ARRA package includes additional funds for the DOE Loan Guarantee program, DOE EERE programs, and other programs and initiatives. In addition to federal support, state and local policies, incentives, rules and regulations, as well as financing developments continue to encourage deployment of solar energy technologies. In 2008, global private-sector investment in solar energy technology topped $16 billion, including almost $4 billion invested in the United States. From 2004 to 2008, global private sector investment increased more than 25-fold. Each of three major sources of new investment, venture capital and private equity, debt, and public equity, grew at a CAGR of more than 67%. Global venture capital and private equity investment in solar grew at a 4-year CAGR of 68% from $539 million in 2004 to $4.34 billion in 2008. U.S. venture capital and private equity investment increased from $61 million in 2004 to $2.3 billion in 2008, corresponding to a 4-year CAGR of 148%. Solar PV market forecasts made in early 2009 anticipate global PV production and demand to increase fourfold between 2008 and 2012, reaching roughly 20 GW of production and demand by 2012. Europe is expected to remain the largest market for solar power, but the North American market is expected to grow the fastest. Module prices are projected to decrease 34% from 2008 to 2010, and system prices are projected to decrease 31% from 2008 to 2010. Globally, about 13 GW of CSP was announced or proposed through 2015, based on forecasts made in mid-2009. Regional market shares for the 13 GW are about 51% in the United States, 33% in Spain, 8% in the Middle East and North Africa, and 8% in Australasia, Europe, and South Africa. Of the 6.5-GW project pipeline in the United States, 4.3 GW have power purchase agreements (PPAs). The PPAs comprise 41% parabolic trough, 40% power tower, and 19% dish-engine systems.
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