Renewable Electricity Futures Study
Explore the RE Futures scenarios at a state-level and download the data.
RE Futures Visualizations
These visualizations are based on RE Futures modeling and represent the transformation of the U.S. electric system to a high renewable system from 2010 to 2050 and the hourly operation and transmission flow of that system in 2050.
Transformation of the Electric Sector(Compare to Baseline Projections)
Hourly Operation in 2050(Compare to Baseline Projections)
Power Flow in 2050(Compare to Baseline Projections)
The National Renewable Energy Laboratory's (NREL) Renewable Electricity Futures Study (RE Futures) is an initial investigation of the extent to which renewable energy supply can meet the electricity demands of the continental United States over the next several decades. This study explores the implications and challenges of very high renewable electricity generation levels—from 30% up to 90%, focusing on 80%, of all U.S. electricity generation—in 2050. At such high levels of renewable electricity generation, the unique characteristics of some renewable resources, specifically geographical distribution and variability and uncertainty in output, pose challenges to the operability of the nation's electric system.
Renewable Electricity Futures Report
- Executive Summary
- Volume 1: Exploration of High-Penetration Renewable Electricity Futures (includes Executive Summary)
- Volume 2: Renewable Electricity Generation and Storage Technologies
- Volume 3: End-Use Electricity Demand
- Volume 4: Bulk Electric Power Systems: Operations and Transmission Planning
- Renewable electricity generation from technologies that are commercially available today, in combination with a more flexible electric system, is more than adequate to supply 80% of total U.S. electricity generation in 2050 while meeting electricity demand on an hourly basis in every region of the country.
- Increased electric system flexibility, needed to enable electricity supply and demand balance with high levels of renewable generation, can come from a portfolio of supply- and demand-side options, including flexible conventional generation, grid storage, new transmission, more responsive loads, and changes in power system operations.
- The abundance and diversity of U.S. renewable energy resources can support multiple combinations of renewable technologies that result in deep reductions in electric sector greenhouse gas emissions and water use.
- The direct incremental cost associated with high renewable generation is comparable to published cost estimates of other clean energy scenarios. Improvement in the cost and performance of renewable technologies is the most impactful lever for reducing this incremental cost.
RE Futures provides initial answers to important questions about the integration of high penetrations of renewable electricity technologies from a national perspective, focusing on key technical implications. The study explores electricity grid integration using models with unprecedented geographic and time resolution for the contiguous United States to assess whether the U.S. power system can supply electricity to meet customer demand on an hourly basis with high levels of renewable electricity, including variable wind and solar generation.
RE Futures, funded by the U.S. Department of Energy's Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy, is a collaboration with more than 110 contributors from 35 organizations including national laboratories, industry, universities, and non-governmental organizations.
As the most comprehensive analysis of high-penetration renewable electricity of the continental United States to date, the study can inform broader discussion of the evolution of the electric system and electricity markets toward clean systems. RE Futures results indicate that renewable generation could play a more significant role in the U.S. electricity system than previously thought and that further work is warranted to investigate this clean generation pathway.
Related Journal Articles and Reports
- Brinkman, Gregory. 2015. Renewable Electricity Futures: Operational Analysis of the Western Interconnection at Very High Renewable Penetrations. NREL/TP-6A20-64467. National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL), Golden CO (US).
- Mai, T., M. Hand, M., S.F. Baldwin, R.H. Wiser, G.L. Brinkman, P. Denholm, D.J. Arent, G. Porro, G., D. Sandor, D.J. Hostick, M. Milligan, E.A. DeMeo, and M. Bazilian. "Renewable Electricity Futures for the United States." IEEE Transactions on Sustainable Energy 5, no. 2 (April 2014): 372-78.
- Mai, T., D. Mulcahy, M.M. Hand, and S.F. Baldwin. (2014). "Envisioning a Renewable Electricity Future for the United States." Energy 65, no. 1 (February 2014): 374-86.
- Arent, D., J. Pless, T. Mai, R. Wiser, M. Hand, S. Baldwin, G. Heath, J. Macknick, M. Bazilian, A. Schlosser, and P. Denholm. "Implications of High Renewable Electricity Penetration in the U.S. for Water Use, Greenhouse Gas Emissions, Land-Use, and Materials Supply." Applied Energy 123 (15 June 2014): 368-77.
- Cochran, J., T. Mai, and M. Bazilian. "Meta-Analysis of High-Penetration Renewable Energy Scenarios." Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews 29 (January 2014): 246-53.
- Bazilian, M., T. Mai, S. Baldwin, D. Arent, M. Miller, and J. Logan. Decision-Making for High Renewable Electricity Futures in the United States. Energy Strategy Reviews , no. 3-4 (February 2014): 326-28.
- Hostick, D.J., D.B. Belzer, S.W. Hadley, T. Markel, C. Marnay, and M.C.W. Kintner-Meyer. 2014. Projecting Electricity Demand in 2050. PNNL-23491. Pacific Northwest National Laboratory, Richland, WA (US).
- Bazilian, M., R. Detchon, M. Miller, M. Liebreich, W. Blyth, G. Thompson, M. Futch, V. Modi, L. Jones, B. Barkett, M. Howells, I. MacGill, D.M. Kammen, T. Mai, M. Wittenstein, S. Aggarwal, R. Weston, M. O'Malley, J.P. Carvallo, and D.J. Arent. "Accelerating the Global Transformation to 21st Century Power Systems." The Electricity Journal 26, no. 6 (July 2013): 39–51.
- Denholm, P., R. Margolis, T. Mai, G. Brinkman, E. Drury, M. Hand, and M. Mowers. 2013. "Bright Future: Solar Power as a Major Contributor to the U.S. Grid." IEEE Power and Energy Magazine 11, no. 2 (March 2013): 22-32.
Modeling and Cost Data
- Energy models used in the study:
- Technology cost and performance assumptions used in scenario analysis:
- Black & Veatch report on Cost and Performance Data for Power Generation Technologies – documents assumptions used for baseline and incremental technology improvement scenarios
- Transparent Cost Database/Open Energy Information – includes cost (capital and operating) and capacity factor assumptions for renewable generation technologies used for baseline, incremental technology improvement, and evolutionary technology improvement scenarios, along with other published and DOE program estimates for these technologies
- Scenario results:
- Renewable Electricity Futures Scenario Viewer - Explore RE Futures scenarios at a state-level and download the data.
- RE Futures Volume 1 figure data
- Geographical Distribution of Renewable Technology Capacity in 2050
- Demands calculation:
RE Futures in the News
- National Public Radio's All Things Considered
- Slashing Fossil Fuel Consumption Comes With A Price (December 2, 2013)
- Wall Street Journal
- Windpower Engineering & Development
- Report explores renewable electricity futures (August 21, 2012)
- The Union of Concerned Scientists
- U.S. Renewable Electricity Future Is Within Reach (August 8, 2012)
- Earth Techling
- The Way Forward for Renewable Energy Policy In The US (July 30, 2012)
- Worldwatch Institute
- The Way Forward for Renewable Energy Policy in the U.S. (July 26, 2012)
- Denver Post
- Clean Technica
- Care 2 Make a Difference
- Thinking Big: 80 Percent Renewables is Possible by 2050 (June 29, 2012)
- Renewables Could Supply 80% U.S. Electricity (June 23, 2013)