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Energy Analysis Newsletter — April 2009
Energy analysis at the National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) encompasses a broad range of energy analysis in support of the U.S. Department of Energy's (DOE) Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE), NREL programs and initiatives, and the energy analysis community. Here is the latest news on energy analysis activities at NREL:
Upcoming Events
April Seminar: Green Process Design, Industrial Ecology, and Sustainability
Urmila Diwekar
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On April 9, NREL's Strategic Energy Analysis Center (SEAC) and DOE/EERE's Office of Planning, Budget, and Analysis (PBA) will present a seminar (in Washington, D.C.) discussing sustainability. Process simulation models and other design tools allow engineers to design, simulate, and optimize chemical and energy production processes. However, there is a critical need to incorporate green engineering into the design of these processes. This calls for extending the breadth of the design process. This presentation by Urmila Diwekar, of the Vishwamitra Research Institute, will discuss an integrated computer-aided framework that extends the traditional design framework from green process design, to industrial ecology, to sustainability. The design goal is not restricted to profitability, but environmental and ecological objectives are also added. Diwekar also will present an approach based on real options theory in the financial world, which is applied to decision making for sustainability. Real world case studies will be presented to illustrate the concepts.
For more information on the seminar series — including log-in and call-in information for remote access — visit the Web site.
Publications and Web Sites
Some of the documents in this section are available as Adobe Acrobat PDFs.
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Analyzing Energy Plans
SEAC analysts Jeff Logan and Ted James recently published the report "A Comparative Review of a Dozen National Energy Plans: Focus on Renewable and Efficient Energy." (PDF 598 KB) Dozens of groups have submitted energy, environmental, and economic recovery plans for consideration by the Obama administration and the 111th Congress. This report provides a comparative analysis of 12 national proposals, focusing especially on energy efficiency (EE) and renewable energy (RE) market and policy issues. Many of the plans considered here call for transformative change, citing decades of inconsistent, inattentive, or otherwise failed national energy policy. Almost universally, plans call for an expansion of clean energy research and development, EE and RE deployment, and climate change preparedness. But sharp differences also exist regarding domestic drilling, nuclear power, carbon mitigation, and the role of government.
Regional Supply and Demand
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SEAC analysts Lori Bird, David Hurlbut, Pearl Donohoo, Karlynn Cory, and Claire Kreycik recently published the report "An Examination of the Regional Supply and Demand Balance for Renewable Electricity in the United States through 2015." (PDF 889 KB) This report examines the balance between the demand and supply of new renewable electricity in the United States on a regional basis through 2015. This analysis relies on estimates of renewable energy supplies compared to demand for renewable energy generation needed to meet existing state renewable portfolio standard (RPS) policies in 28 states, as well as demand by consumers who voluntarily purchase renewable energy. Given current policies and demand for renewables, this analysis found an overall national surplus of renewable energy generation to meet existing RPS policy targets and voluntary market demand. However, some regional shortages are projected, while other regions are projected to have excess renewable energy supplies.
Residential Solar PV Financing
NREL analysts Jason Coughlin and Karlynn Cory recently published the report "Solar Photovoltaic Financing: Residential Sector Deployment." (PDF 2.7 MB) This report presents the information that homeowners and policy makers need to facilitate PV financing at the residential level. The full range of cash payments, bill savings, and tax incentives is covered, as well as potentially available solar attribute payments. Traditional financing is also compared to innovative solutions, many of which are borrowed from the commercial sector. Unfortunately, these programs are limited to select locations around the country. By calling attention to these innovative initiatives, this report aims to help policy makers consider greater adoption of these models to benefit homeowners interested in installing a residential PV system.
Renewable Energy Tax Credits
NREL analysts Karlynn Cory and Ted James, along with Mark Bolinger and Ryan Wiser of Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory (LBNL), recently published the report "PTC, ITC, or Cash Grant? An Analysis of the Choice Facing Renewable Power Projects in the United States." (PDF 680 KB) Renewable power technologies are inherently capital-intensive, often (but not always) with relatively high construction costs and low operating costs. For this reason, renewable power technologies are typically more sensitive to the availability and cost of financing than are natural gas power plants, for example. This report analyzes, from the project developer/owner perspective, the choice between the production tax credit (PTC) and the investment tax credit (ITC) or equivalent cash grant for different renewable power technologies.
Hydrogen Assessment
SEAC analysts Anelia Milbrandt and Margaret Mann recently published the report "Hydrogen Resource Assessment: Hydrogen Potential from Coal, Natural Gas, Nuclear, and Hydro Power." (PDF 5.0 MB) This report estimates the quantity of hydrogen that could be produced from coal, natural gas, nuclear, and hydroelectric power by county in the United States. The study estimates that more than 72 million tonnes of hydrogen can be produced from coal, natural gas, nuclear, and hydroelectric power per year in the country (considering only 30% of their total annual production). The United States consumed about 396 million tonnes of gasoline in 2007; therefore, the report suggests the amount of hydrogen from these sources could displace about 80% of this consumption.
Renewable Energy Rebates
SEAC analysts Eric Lantz and Elizabeth Doris recently published the report "State Clean Energy Practices: Renewable Energy Rebates." (PDF 524 KB) This report highlights the impacts of specific renewable energy rebate programs on renewable energy markets around the country, as well as rebate program impacts on overarching energy policy drivers. It also discusses lessons learned, challenges, ideal applications, keys to success, and complementary and alternative policies. Results indicate that rebate programs can have a strong deployment impact on emerging renewable energy markets. This report focuses on renewable energy rebate programs, which are being analyzed as part of the State Clean Energy Policies Analysis (SCEPA) project. SCEPA looks at the impacts of existing state policies and identifies crucial policy attributes and their potential applicability to other states.
Feed-in Tariff Policies
SEAC analysts Karlynn Cory, Toby Couture, and Claire Kreycik recently published the report "Feed-in Tariff Policy: Design, Implementation and RPS Policy Interactions." (PDF 466 KB) Feed-in tariff (FIT) policies are implemented in more than 40 countries around the world and are cited as the primary reason for the success of the German and Spanish renewable energy markets. As a result of that success, FIT policy proposals are starting to gain traction in several U.S. states and municipalities. Experience from Europe is also beginning to demonstrate that properly designed FITs may be more cost-effective than renewable portfolio standards (RPS), which make use of competitive solicitations. This report explores the design and operation of feed-in tariff policies, including a FIT policy definition, payment-structure options, and payment differentiation. It also touches on the potential interactions between FIT policies and RPS policies at the state level.
Analysts Meet With Stakeholders
SEAC Director Doug Arent attended the New Energy Finance Annual Summit, a gathering of top investors and clean energy companies, in London on March 4-6. Participants discussed the state of clean energy markets, noting both challenging conditions for raising capital in the short term, and optimism relative to new stimulus packages across the globe and supportive policy environments.
On March 16, SEAC analyst David Kline and government relations representative Bob Noun met with a delegation from the Taipei Economic and Cultural Office, which is part of the Taiwan Consulate in the United States. Noun provided an overview of NREL and its programs, and Kline discussed NREL's international programs with the delegation, who expressed strong interest in cooperation between the laboratory and Taiwan.
SEAC analyst Eric Lantz represented NREL in a kickoff meeting for the International Energy Agency (IEA) working group on "Social Acceptance of Wind Energy" in mid-March. Lantz gave a presentation on the status of the U.S. wind industry and discussed the potential implications of recently passed (and proposed) federal legislation that affects the technology. In addition, he detailed current U.S. social acceptance-related research along with ongoing NREL research in this area. The working group's first white paper will provide an international conception of social acceptance as it relates to wind energy, and summarize the breadth of international experience and knowledge on this topic. The meeting (which took place in Magdeburg, Germany) included international experts on wind energy and social acceptance from 10 different countries.
In mid-March, NREL analyst William Wallace attended the Biomass 2009 Conference in Washington, D.C. He also met with various government representatives regarding the status of biofuels activities with China. In April, Wallace and other NREL staff will meet with the National Energy Administration in China and other working groups to consolidate work plans for FY09 and begin discussions for FY10.
For the latest updates on information regarding energy analysis, visit the Energy Analysis Web site.
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