Renewable Energy Certificate and Green Power Markets
NREL's market analysis group examines the implications of customer choice on the market demand for renewable energy as well as renewable energy certificate (REC) markets that have emerged for compliance with state renewable energy standards. They have tracked the status of voluntary markets for renewable energy and conducted analyses of regional REC market demand.
Key Analyses for 2010
Green Power Market Forecast
SEAC analysts Lori Bird, Jenny Sumner, and Claire Kreycik, along with Ed Holt of Ed Holt and Associates, recently published the report "Voluntary Green Power Market Forecast through 2015."
Various factors influence the development of the voluntary "green" power market — the market in which consumers purchase or produce power from non-polluting, renewable energy sources. These factors include climate policies, renewable portfolio standards (RPS), renewable energy prices, consumers' interest in purchasing green power, and utilities' interest in promoting existing programs and in offering new green options. This report presents estimates of voluntary market demand for green power through 2015 that were made using historical data and three scenarios: low-growth, high-growth, and negative-policy impacts. Several key uncertainties affect the results of this forecast, including uncertainties related to growth assumptions, the impacts that policy may have on the market, the price and competitiveness of renewable generation, and the level of interest that utilities have in offering and promoting green power products.
Key Analyses for 2009
Status of Green Power Marketing
SEAC analysts Lori Bird, Claire Kreycik, and Barry Friedman published "Green Power Marketing in the United States: A Status Report (2008 Data)."
Voluntary consumer decisions to buy electricity supplied from renewable energy sources represent a powerful market support mechanism for renewable energy development. In the early 1990s, a small number of U.S. utilities began offering "green power" options to their customers. Since then, these products have become more prevalent, both from traditional utilities and from renewable energy marketers operating in states that have introduced competition into their retail electricity markets or offering renewable energy certificates (RECs) online. This report documents green power marketing activities and trends in the United States including utility green pricing programs offered in regulated electricity markets; green power marketing activity in competitive electricity markets, as well as green power sold to voluntary purchasers in the form of RECs; and renewable energy sold as greenhouse gas offsets in the United States.
Expenditures for Green Power Marketing
NREL analysts Barry Friedman and Mackay Miller published the report "Green Pricing Program Marketing Expenditures: Finding the Right Balance."
In practice, it is difficult to determine the optimal amount to spend on marketing and administering a green pricing program. Budgets for marketing and administration of green pricing programs are a function of several factors: the region of the country; the size of the utility service area; the customer base and media markets encompassed within that service area; the point or stage in the lifespan of the program; and certainly, not least, the utility's commitment to and goals for the program. All of these factors vary significantly among programs — this report presents data on programs that have funded both marketing and program administration. This report also addresses the role of renewable energy credit (REC) marketers and start-up costs — and the role of marketing, in general, for achieving program objectives such as expansion of renewable energy.
Regional Supply and Demand
SEAC analysts Lori Bird, David Hurlbut, Pearl Donohoo, Karlynn Cory, and Claire Kreycik recently published the report "An Examination of the Regional Supply
and Demand Balance for Renewable Electricity in the United States through 2015."
This report examines the balance between the demand and supply of new renewable electricity in the United States on a regional basis through 2015. This analysis relies on estimates of renewable energy supplies compared to demand for renewable energy generation needed to meet existing state renewable portfolio standard (RPS) policies in 28 states, as well as demand by consumers who voluntarily purchase renewable energy. Given current policies and demand for renewables, this analysis found an overall national surplus of renewable energy generation to meet existing RPS policy targets and voluntary market demand. However, some regional shortages are projected, while other regions are projected to have excess renewable energy supplies.
Green Power Network
The Green Power Network (GPN) provides news and information on green power markets and related activities. The site provides up-to-date information on green power providers, product offerings, consumer protection issues, and policies affecting green power markets. It also includes a reference library of relevant papers, articles and reports.
More Publications
For more information on renewable energy markets, access the following publications which are available as Adobe Acrobat PDFs.
2009
"2008 Federal Energy Management Program (FEMP) Market Report." Tremper, C. (2009) 82 pp.; NREL Report No. TP-6A2-46021; DOE/GO-102009-2863.
"2007 Fuel Cell Technologies Market Report." McMurphy, K. (2009). 22 pp.; NREL Report No. TP-6A2-46023; DOE/GO-102009-2865.
"2008 Geothermal Technologies Market Report." Cross, J.; Freeman, J. (2009). 46 pp.; NREL Report No. TP-6A2-46022; DOE/GO-102009-2864.
"2008 Industrial Technologies Market Report." (2009). 82 pp.; NREL Report No. TP-6A2-46024; DOE/GO-102009-2866.
"2008 Vehicle Technologies Market Report." Ward, J.; Davis, S. (2009). 54 pp.; NREL Report No. TP-6A2-46018; DOE/GO-102009-2860.
"2008 Wind Technologies Market Report." Wiser, R.; Bolinger, M. (2009). 68 pp.; NREL Report No. TP-6A2-46026; DOE/GO-102009-2868.
"Eastern Wind Integration and Transmission Study — Preliminary Findings: Preprint." Corbus, D.; Milligan, M.; Ela, E.; Schuerger, M.; Zavadil, B. (2009). 9 pp.; NREL Report No. CP-550-46505.
"Energy Savings Certificate Markets: Opportunities and Implementation Barriers." Friedman, B.; Bird, L.; Barbose, G. (2009). 14 pp.; NREL Report No. CP-6A2-45970.
"Examination of the Regional Supply and Demand Balance for Renewable Electricity in the United States through 2015." Bird, L.; Hurlbut, D.; Donohoo, P.; Cory, K.; Kreycik, C. (2009). 51 pp.; NREL Report No. TP-6A2-45041.
"Green Power Marketing in the United States: A Status Report (2008 Data)." Bird, L.; Kreycik, C.; Friedman, B. (2009). 54 pp.; NREL Report No. TP-6A2-46581.
"Green Price Stability." Bird, L. A.; Cory, K. S.; Swezey, B. G. Public Utilities Fortnightly. (2009). Vol. 147(1), January 2009; pp. 42-52; NREL Report No. JA-6A2-46108.
"Green Pricing Program Marketing Expenditures: Finding the Right Balance." Friedman, B.; Miller, M. (2009). 39 pp.; NREL Report No. TP-6A2-46449.
"How do Wind and Solar Power Affect Grid Operations: The Western Wind and Solar Integration Study; Preprint." Lew, D.; Milligan, M.; Jordan, G.; Freeman, L.; Miller, N.; Clark, K.; Piwko, R. (2009). 10 pp.; NREL Report No. CP-550-46517.
"Impact of Electric Industry Structure on High Wind Penetration Potential." Milligan, M.; Kirby, B.; Gramlich, R.; Goggin, M. (2009). 31 pp.; NREL Report No. TP-550-46273.
"Market Assessment of Biomass Gasification and Combustion Technology for Small- and Medium-Scale Applications." Peterson, D.; Haase, S. (2009). 32 pp.; NREL Report No. TP-7A2-46190.
2008
"Considerations for Emerging Markets for Energy Savings Certificates." Friedman, B.; Bird, L.; Barbose, G. (2008). 59 pp.; NREL Report No. TP-670-44072.
"Green Power Marketing in the United States: A Status Report (11th Edition)." Bird, L.; Kreycik, C.; Friedman, B. (2008). 49 pp.; NREL Report No. TP-6A2-44094.
"Implications of Carbon Cap-and-Trade for U.S. Voluntary Renewable Energy Markets." Bird, L. A.; Holt, E.; Carroll, G. L. (2008). Energy Policy. Vol. 36(6), 2008; pp. 2063-2073; NREL Report No. JA-670-42908. doi:10.1016/j.enpol.2008.02.009
"Interaction of Compliance and Voluntary Renewable Energy Markets." Bird, L.; Lokey, E. (2008). Electricity Journal. Vol. 21(1), 2008; pp. 18-31; NREL Report No. JA-670-42696. doi:10.1016/j.tej.2007.12.006
"Renewable Energy Price-Stability Benefits in Utility Green Power Programs." Bird, L. A.; Swezey, B. G.; Cory, K. S. (2008). 36 pp.; NREL Report No. TP-670-43532.
2007
"Green Power Marketing in the United States: A Status Report (Tenth Edition)." Bird, L.; Dagher, L.; Swezey, B. (2007). 68 pp.; NREL Report No. TP-670-42502.
"Implications of Carbon Regulation for Green Power Markets." Bird, L.; Holt, E.; Carroll, G. (2007). 69 pp.; NREL Report No. TP-640-41076.
"Interaction of Compliance and Voluntary Renewable Energy Markets." Bird, L.; Lokey, E. (2007). 32 pp.; NREL Report No. TP-670-42096.
"Trends in Utility Green Pricing Programs (2006)." Bird, L.; Kaiser, M. (2007). 52 pp.; NREL Report No. TP-670-42287.
More Information
To talk with an analyst about this area of market analysis, contact Lori Bird.
