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Analysis Activities by Organization
Representatives: Ed Coe, Allen Fawcett, Dan Loughlin, Denise Mulholland, Michael Shelby
Address: 109 T.W. Alexander Dr.,
Mail Code: E305-02,
Research Triangle Park, NC 27711
Web site: www.epa.gov
http://www.epa.gov/appcdwww/apb/globalchange/
Organizational Objectives – Analysis
The overall mission of the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency is to protect human health and the environment.
Within the U.S. EPA, the Office of Research and Development's mission is to conduct leading-edge research and foster the sound use of science and technology to fulfill EPA's missions.
Within ORD, the Integrated Systems Analysis Workgroup is examining the interactions between technology change in the energy system and pollutant emissions. This work is used to inform research and regulatory applications within the Agency, and is also being incorporated into decision support tools to assist regional and state decision-makers adapt to global changes, including population and economic growth, land use change, and climate change.
Analysis Activities – Relevance to Priority Topics
A) Enhance Research, Development and Deployment Portfolio Analysis Tools
A key component of our work is using the MARKAL model to evaluate the fuel use and emissions implications of various alternative technology futures. We have integrated MARKAL into a framework that facilitates sensitivity, uncertainty, and risk analyses. These capabilities potentially are helpful in activities such as Portfolio Analysis.
C) Augment Energy Technologies and Demand Response Representation in Energy Models
Our group is studying how climate change scenarios may impact future-year energy service demands.
Also, we are participating in the REMAP process, in which different energy modeling teams are collaborating to examine issues related to renewable energy technologies.
D) Enhance Regional Technology Characterizations and Transmission Constraints in Energy Models
We are developing a 9-region U.S. MARKAL technology and energy demand database, with the 9 regions corresponding to the 9 U.S. census divisions. As we refine this database, we expect to differentiate energy service demands, technology availability and characteristics, resource availability, and transportation/transmission costs from one region to another.
E) Improve Impact Evaluation Tools: Economic Development, Energy Security, Environmental Impacts
Our group's MARKAL technology modeling work fits into the Office of Research and Development's Global Program, the goal of which is to examine the environmental impacts of various global change scenarios.
A component of this program is the Global Change Air Quality Assessment, in which we are examining the impacts of global changes on future-year (e.g., 2050) air quality and identifying potential adaptation strategies. To examine potential future air quality impacts, we are developing an integrated modeling system that includes a general circulation model, a regional meteorological model (MM5), an energy system model (MARKAL), land-use model (SERGoM), emissions processing model (SMOKE), and air quality model (CMAQ).
F) Improve Policy Analysis Tools and Integration of Data and Tools at State and Federal Levels
We are exploring ways that models and tools such as those used by our group can benefit decision-makers at the federal, regional, state, and local levels. An initial project in this area was a cooperative agreement in which a regional version of MARKAL was developed for a 6-state New England region to evaluate the impacts of various planning options on air quality.
G) Enhance Biofuel Resource Potential and Infrastructure Analysis
We are working to improve the representation of biomass within our MARKAL model.
H) Improve Behavioral Factors in Market/Choice Models and Tools
We are examining the role that hurdle rates and other factors may play in allowing an optimization model to more closely mimic consumer behavior.
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