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Analysis Activities by Organization
Representatives: Darrell Beschen, Brian Card, Scott Hassell, Michael Leifman, Philip Patterson
Web site: http://www.eere.energy.gov/ba/pba/index.html
Organizational Objectives – Analysis
The Office of Planning, Budget, and Analysis (PBA) provides information that informs policy development and program planning, relevant to DOE's energy efficiency and renewable energy (EERE) programs. PBA activities include collection, analysis, and dissemination of energy efficiency and renewable energy technology, market, economic, and policy data. PBA leads the analysis of the public benefits of EERE programs, including economic, environmental, and energy security benefits and is developing improved metrics and modeling tools for estimating these benefits. PBA is also enhancing tools and methods for treatment of risk and uncertainty in benefits and portfolio analysis and program planning. In addition, PBA supports development of high quality multiyear plans for DOE's energy efficiency and renewable energy programs and provides guidance and technical support for program planning. PBA also conducts evaluations of past program performance and supports continuous improvement in performance assessment methods.
Analysis Activities – Relevance to Priority Topics
A) Enhance Research, Development and Deployment Portfolio Analysis Tools
PBA is developing and piloting improved tools for analysis of the benefits and impacts of DOE's energy efficiency and renewable energy program portfolio. This includes work on methods for evaluation or risk and uncertainty and application of these methods to program benefits assessment and planning. Examples include:
- The Multi-Path study is the current effort to analyze the technology pathways and scenarios that could lead to significant oil and carbon reductions in light vehicles in the U.S. out to 2050. Results from Phase 1 of this study will be available in late December 2006.
- An earlier study, entitled "Future U.S. Highway Energy Use: A Fifty Year Perspective", was completed in May 2003.
- The VISION model is a "what if?" spreadsheet model that deals with light vehicles and heavy trucks. It is used very often to estimate the oil savings and carbon reductions from vehicle technologies and alternative fuels that have different fuel economies and carbon intensities than for the conventional vehicle.
B) Improve Deployment Partnerships between Industry and Government
PBA is evaluating alternative approaches used by DOE EERE programs for accelerating market transformation to inform improvements to PBA's planning guidance to programs and supports a variety of analytic tools and data that can help identify opportunities for accelerating deployment through industry and government partnerships.
C) Augment Energy Technologies and Demand Response Representation in Energy Models
PBA supports a variety of studies designed to enhance understanding of current and future technology performance and costs and to support better representation of these technologies in energy models.
- The PSAT model (Powertrain System Analysis Toolkit) is used to estimate the fuel economy of light vehicles. PSAT is a "forward-looking" model that simulates fuel economy and performance in a realistic manner — taking into account transient behavior and control system characteristics. It can simulate a number of predefined configurations (conventional, electric, fuel cell, series hybrid, parallel hybrid, and power split hybrid).
D) Enhance Regional Technology Characterizations and Transmission Constraints in Energy Models
PBA is supporting analysis to improve regional characterization of technologies in energy models and improved treatment of transmission constraints and plans in these models.
- The Regional H2 model was developed to estimate the hydrogen demand, production, and cost by region (i.e., U.S. Census Regions) using a set of assumptions.
E) Improve Impact Evaluation Tools: Economic Development, Energy Security, Environmental Impacts
PBA is supporting work to improve impact evaluation tools on several fronts, including improved methods for evaluating oil security and environmental impacts and benefits.
- DOE has funded the development and use of the fuel-cycle model called GREET (Greenhouse gases, Regulated Emissions, and Energy use in Transportation). It allows researchers and analysts to evaluate various vehicle and fuel combinations on a full fuel-cycle basis.
Analysis on energy security analysis is currently being conducted. Information will be available on this soon.
Information on and estimates of the cost of oil dependence is in this document, Costs of Oil Dependence: A 2000 Update (PDF 236 KB) Download Adobe Reader
F) Improve Policy Analysis Tools and Integration of Data and Tools at State and Federal Levels
PBA supports maintenance of the DSIRE state policy data base and compilation of Green Power market data. PBA also is working to improve tools for use by all levels of government for GIS analysis. In addition PBA is supporting compilation of existing U.S. resource assessment data through a EPACT report to Congress.
- The MARC (Market Approaches to Reduce fuel Consumption) project is currently being conducted with support from DOE, DOT, and EPA. It is looking at options to reduce oil consumption in light vehicles. Information on this project will be available in mid-2007.
G) Enhance Biofuel Resource Potential and Infrastructure Analysis
PBA has supported the development of a biomass model for integrated analysis of pathways and impacts of the transition to large scale use of cellulosic ethanol in the U.S.
H) Improve Behavioral Factors in Market/Choice Models and Tools
PBA supports consumer surveys to evaluate consumer demand and preferences for energy efficiency and renewable energy technologies. PBA is also working to improve treatment of consumer valuation across DOE EERE programs and in energy models. In addition, PBA collects and evaluates data on consumer demand for Green Power.
- The AVID model (Advanced Vehicles Introduction Decisions) was designed but not fully developed. This light vehicle choice model applies a new approach by segmenting vehicle buyers as early adopters, early buyers, and late majority buyers.
I) Other analysis topics of interest
DOE and EPA sponsored a workshop on modeling the impact of the peaking of conventional oil.
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