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Analysis Activities by Organization
Representative: Danilo J. Santini
Address: 955 L'Enfant Plaza SW, Suite 6000
Washington DC 20024-2112
Web site: www.anl.gov
Organizational Objectives – Analysis
Conduct technology analyses examining the costs and benefits of alternative transportation technologies. The primary focus is on direct costs and benefits at market prices, including so-called "hedonic" costs and costs of meeting present emissions and safety regulations. The analyses also consider the potential effect of possible future regulatory actions, since non-market attributes (i.e., externality effects under scientific scrutiny but not presently regulated) of future transportation technology are a major factor in allocating research dollars among future technology options. Greenhouse gases and fine particulates in vehicle emissions are current prime examples of such effects.
Researchers evaluate the oil-saving potential of various transportation technologies, taking into account costs to individual consumers and to society. They address social costs by assessing how technologies meet present air quality and potential future emissions and air quality requirements. Research results are documented in Argonne National Laboratory reports, conference presentations and papers, and peer-reviewed journal articles. Goals include the following:
- Providing world-class analyses of advanced vehicle technology options
- Evaluating the market potential for electric drive vehicles (hybrids and pure electrics) relative to those of comparable conventional vehicles
- Focusing on the markets and technologies for heavy vehicles to improve fuel efficiency and reduce emissions and fatalities
- Contributing to development or refinement of regulatory structures that will enable the smooth introduction of advanced and alternatively fueled vehicles into the market
- Assessing potential transitions to a more sustainable transportation system (i.e., a system that uses far fewer energy resources and emits far fewer greenhouse gases)
- Providing credible assessments of the status and direction of change in today's transportation systems
- Developing computer models to support the preceding goals
Analysis Activities – Relevance to Priority Topics
C) Augment Energy Technologies and Demand Response Representation in Energy Models
A preliminary light duty vehicle consumer demand model called Advanced Vehicle Introduction Decisions (AVID) has been developed (see discussion below). It combines features from diffusion of innovation literature and logit modeling of consumer choice for advanced vs. conventional vehicles.
D) Enhance Regional Technology Characterizations and Transmission Constraints in Energy Models
As a part of a new joint study of Plug-in Hybrids by Argonne and the Electric Power Research Institute, careful attention will be given to regional differences in power generation. Variation in emissions caused by "electric miles" will be examined, by region, as a function of time of day, season, and rate of charging of vehicles.
E) Improve Impact Evaluation Tools: Economic Development, Energy Security, Environmental Impacts
The VISION model has been developed to provide estimates of the potential energy use, oil use, and carbon emission impacts to 2050 of advanced light- and heavy-duty highway vehicle technologies and alternative fuels. DOE supports research into advanced transportation technologies (including fuels) and is frequently asked to provide estimates of the potential impacts of successful market penetration of these technologies, sometimes on a relatively quick-turnaround basis. The model is continuously updated.
F) Improve Policy Analysis Tools and Integration of Data and Tools at State and Federal Levels
The Center for Transportation Research at Argonne National Laboratory analyzes nationwide surveys of travel, light and heavy vehicle usage, freight movement, energy demand, and impacts of various policies on transportation energy demand. Argonne Energy Environmental Economic Systems Analysis Methodology covers all energy sectors including transportation.
H) Improve Behavioral Factors in Market/Choice Models and Tools
The Advanced Vehicles Introduction Decisions (AVID) model is designed to portray the way in which consumers change their vehicle purchase decisions as new-technology vehicles move from the "risky" or "unique" phase immediately after they are first introduced in the market to the "safe" or "mainstream" phase when they begin to widely penetrate the market. This change in purchase behavior by consumers reflects both their changing perception of the vehicles as their market shares increase and the reality that consumers who are most likely to buy newly introduced vehicles are quite different from those likely to buy mainstream vehicles. For example, a buyer of a new, highly fuel-efficient type of vehicle may be (1) a consumer who drives far more miles per year than the average driver or (2) an "early adopter" who relishes owning a unique vehicle with brand-new technology. This buyer may be less concerned about purchase price than the average buyer and may place a substantially higher value on the characteristics that make the vehicle unique — for example, its high fuel economy. AVID is designed to reflect such differences.
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